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Performance of national scale smoothed seismicity estimates of earthquake activity rates

Four smoothed seismicity models were submitted for consideration to the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA18). Three of the models used fixed smoothing bandwidths, each with slightly different implementations, while the fourth used an adaptive smoothing bandwidth that varies spatially based on earthquake density. In this paper we assess the performance of these models at forecasting activity rates over decadal timescales by using part of the earthquake catalogue used for NSHA18 to develop the models and calculating the log-likelihood of the model activity rates against the remainder of the catalogue. We test the performance of the models at forecasting rates of earthquakes of different magnitudes over different lengths of training and forecast periods, and compare the use of non-declustered and declustered earthquake catalogues. We test for time-dependence by running the comparisons sequentially and using an earthquake catalogue randomised in time. The results are used to evaluate and inform the final implementation of the smoothed seismicity models for calculating 10% in 50 year probability ground motion exceedances for the NSHA18.


This abstract was submitted and presented to the 2017 Australian Earthquake Engineering Society Conference (AEES) ( https://aees.org.au/2017-aees-conference/)

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Identification info

Date (Creation)
2017-06-08T00:00:00
Date (Publication)
2023-10-24T22:31:18
Citation identifier
Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/111343

Cited responsible party
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details
Author

Griffin, J.

Place and Communities Internal Contact
Author

Weatherill, G.

External Contact
Author

Allen, T.

Place and Communities Internal Contact
Publisher

Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

Voice
Name

Australian Earthquake Engineering Society (AEES) Conference, 24-26 November 2017, Canberra, ACT

Purpose

Abstract for Australian Earthquake Engineering Society conference 2017

Status
Completed
Point of contact
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details
Point of contact

Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

Voice
Resource provider

Place and Communities Division

External Contact
Point of contact

Griffin, J.

Place and Communities Internal Contact
Spatial representation type
Topic category
  • Geoscientific information

Extent

Extent

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W


Maintenance and update frequency
As needed

Resource format

Title

Product data repository: Various Formats

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Data Store directory containing the digital product files

Data Store directory containing one or more files, possibly in a variety of formats, accessible to Geoscience Australia staff only for internal purposes

theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
  • EARTH SCIENCES

Keywords
  • national seismic hazard assessment

Keywords
  • smoothed seismicity

Keywords
  • earthquake forecast testing

Keywords
  • Published_External

Resource constraints

Title

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence

Alternate title

CC-BY

Edition

4.0

Website

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/

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Use constraints
License
Other constraints

© Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia) 2017

Resource constraints

Title

Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem

Edition date
2018-11-01T00:00:00
Website

https://www.protectivesecurity.gov.au/Pages/default.aspx

Classification
Unclassified
Language
English
Character encoding
UTF8

Distribution Information

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Distributor

Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

Voice
OnLine resource

Link to Conference Page

Link to Conference Page

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OnLine resource

Link to Abstract

Link to Abstract

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Resource lineage

Statement

Abstract for Australian Earthquake Engineering Society conference 2017

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Dataset

Metadata constraints

Title

Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem

Edition date
2018-11-01T00:00:00
Website

https://www.protectivesecurity.gov.au/Pages/default.aspx

Classification
Unclassified

Metadata

Metadata identifier
urn:uuid/7968b5e7-5025-4629-b474-021480bcc630

Title

GeoNetwork UUID

Language
English
Character encoding
UTF8
Contact
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details
Point of contact

Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

Voice
Owner

Griffin, J.

Place and Communities Internal Contact
Point of contact

Griffin, J.

Place and Communities Internal Contact

Type of resource

Resource scope
Document
Name

Conference abstract

Alternative metadata reference

Title

Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with

uuid

Citation identifier
eCatId/111343

Metadata linkage

https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/7968b5e7-5025-4629-b474-021480bcc630

Metadata linkage

https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/static/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/7968b5e7-5025-4629-b474-021480bcc630

Date info (Creation)
2017-06-08T06:19:18
Date info (Revision)
2017-10-03T02:27:34

Metadata standard

Title

AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014

Metadata standard

Title

ISO 19115-1:2014

Metadata standard

Title

ISO 19115-3

Title

Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014

Edition

Version 2.0, September 2018

Citation identifier
https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/122551

 
 

Spatial extent

N
S
E
W


Keywords

earthquake forecast testing national seismic hazard assessment smoothed seismicity
theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
EARTH SCIENCES

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