Performance of national scale smoothed seismicity estimates of earthquake activity rates
Four smoothed seismicity models were submitted for consideration to the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA18). Three of the models used fixed smoothing bandwidths, each with slightly different implementations, while the fourth used an adaptive smoothing bandwidth that varies spatially based on earthquake density. In this paper we assess the performance of these models at forecasting activity rates over decadal timescales by using part of the earthquake catalogue used for NSHA18 to develop the models and calculating the log-likelihood of the model activity rates against the remainder of the catalogue. We test the performance of the models at forecasting rates of earthquakes of different magnitudes over different lengths of training and forecast periods, and compare the use of non-declustered and declustered earthquake catalogues. We test for time-dependence by running the comparisons sequentially and using an earthquake catalogue randomised in time. The results are used to evaluate and inform the final implementation of the smoothed seismicity models for calculating 10% in 50 year probability ground motion exceedances for the NSHA18.
This abstract was submitted and presented to the 2017 Australian Earthquake Engineering Society Conference (AEES) ( https://aees.org.au/2017-aees-conference/)
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- 2017-06-08T00:00:00
- Date (Publication)
- 2023-10-24T22:31:18
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- Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/111343
- Cited responsible party
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Author Griffin, J.
Place and Communities Internal Contact Author Weatherill, G.
External Contact Author Allen, T.
Place and Communities Internal Contact Publisher Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
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Australian Earthquake Engineering Society (AEES) Conference, 24-26 November 2017, Canberra, ACT
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Abstract for Australian Earthquake Engineering Society conference 2017
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
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EARTH SCIENCES
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- Keywords
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national seismic hazard assessment
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smoothed seismicity
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earthquake forecast testing
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- Keywords
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Published_External
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence
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CC-BY
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4.0
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© Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia) 2017
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Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
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Abstract for Australian Earthquake Engineering Society conference 2017
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Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
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Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with
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- 2017-06-08T06:19:18
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- 2017-10-03T02:27:34
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AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014
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ISO 19115-1:2014
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ISO 19115-3
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Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014
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Version 2.0, September 2018
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