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Improved treatment of non-stationary conditions and uncertainties in probabilistic models of storm wave climate

A framework is presented for the probabilistic modelling of non-stationary coastal storm event sequences, and is applied to a study site on the East Australian Coast. Storm waves at this site are found to exhibit non-stationarities related to ENSO and seasonality. The impact of ENSO is most prominent for storm wave direction, long term MSL and the rate of storms, while seasonal non-stationarity is more ubiquitous, affecting the latter variables as well as storm wave height, duration, period and surge. The probabilistic framework herein separates the modelling of ENSO and seasonal non-stationarity in the storm wave properties from the modelling of their marginal distributions, using copulas. This separation enables non-stationarities to be straightforwardly modelled in all storm wave variables, irrespective of whether parametric or non-parametric techniques are used to model their marginal distributions. Storm wave direction and steepness are modelled with non-parametric distributions whereas storm wave height, duration and surge are modelled parametrically using extreme-value mixture distributions. The advantage of the mixture distributions, compared with the standard extreme value distribution for peaks-over-threshold data (Generalized Pareto), is that the statistical threshold becomes a model parameter instead of being fixed, and so uncertainties in the threshold can be straightforwardly integrated into the analysis. Uncertainties in the model predictions are quantified using a mixture of parametric percentile bootstrap and Bayesian techniques. Percentile bootstrap confidence intervals are shown to non-conservatively underestimate uncertainties in the extremes (e.g. 1% annual exceedance probability wave heights), both in an idealized setting and in our application. The Bayesian approach is applied to the extreme value models to remedy this shortcoming. The modelling framework is applicable to any site where multivariate storm wave properties and timings are affected by seasonal, climatic and long-term non-stationarities.


This paper is published in Coastal Engineering, see https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.06.005

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Identification info

Date (Creation)
2016-07-21T00:00:00
Date (Publication)
2018-04-30T07:03:58
Date (Revision)
2020-03-25T03:59:42
Citation identifier
Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/101180

Citation identifier
Digital Object Identifier/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.06.005

Cited responsible party
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details
Author

Davies, G.

{authorContactOrder}
Author

Callaghan, D.

Author

Gravois, U.

Author

Jiang, W.

Author

Hanslow, D.

Author

Nichol, S.

Author

Baldock, T.

Purpose

Paper published in Coastal Engineering

Status
Completed
Point of contact
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details
Point of contact

Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

Voice
Point of contact

Davies, G.

Resource provider

Place, Space and Communities Division

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  • Geoscientific information

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N
S
E
W


Maintenance and update frequency
As needed
Keywords
  • Published_External

Keywords
  • storm waves

Keywords
  • natural hazards

Keywords
  • statistical modelling

theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
  • EARTH SCIENCES

Resource constraints

Title

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence

Alternate title

CC-BY

Edition

4.0

Website

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/

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Use constraints
License

Resource constraints

Title

Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem

Edition date
2018-11-01T00:00:00
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https://www.protectivesecurity.gov.au/Pages/default.aspx

Classification
Unclassified
Language
English
Character encoding
UTF8

Distribution Information

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Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

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OnLine resource

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Link to the paper

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Written by paper authors

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Metadata constraints

Title

Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem

Edition date
2018-11-01T00:00:00
Website

https://www.protectivesecurity.gov.au/Pages/default.aspx

Classification
Unclassified

Metadata

Metadata identifier
urn:uuid/62f8a1f9-99e5-4f33-a744-b89587b82e81

Title

GeoNetwork UUID

Language
English
Character encoding
UTF8
Contact
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details
Point of contact

Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

Voice
Point of contact

Davies, G.

Type of resource

Resource scope
Document

Alternative metadata reference

Title

Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with

uuid

Citation identifier
eCatId/101180

Metadata linkage

https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/62f8a1f9-99e5-4f33-a744-b89587b82e81

Date info (Creation)
2016-07-21T16:38:02
Date info (Revision)
2018-04-10T23:03:33

Metadata standard

Title

AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014

Metadata standard

Title

ISO 19115-1:2014

Metadata standard

Title

ISO 19115-3

Title

Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014

Edition

Version 2.0, September 2018

Citation identifier
https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/122551

 
 

Spatial extent

N
S
E
W


Keywords

statistical modelling
theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
EARTH SCIENCES

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