Product catalogue
Seismic Hazard Assessment in Australia: Can Structured Expert Elicitation Achieve Consensus in the “Land of the Fair Go”?
The 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment of Australia incorporated 19 alternative seismic-source models. The diversity of these models demonstrates the deep epistemic uncertainty that exists with regards to how best to characterize intraplate seismicity. A complex logic tree was developed to incorporate the alternative models into a single hazard model. Similarly, a diverse range of ground-motion models were proposed for use and incorporated using a logic tree. Expert opinion was drawn upon to weight the alternative logic tree branches through a structured expert elicitation process. This process aims to transparently and reproducibly characterize the community distribution of expert estimates for unknown parameters and thereby quantify the epistemic uncertainty around estimates of seismic hazard in Australia. We achieve a multi-model rational consensus where each model, and each expert, is, in accordance with the Australian cultural myth of egalitarianism, given a ‘fair go’. Yet despite this process, we find that the results are not universally accepted. A key issue is a contested boundary between what is scientifically reducible and what remains epistemologically uncertain, with a particular focus on the earthquake catalog. Furthermore, a reduction, on average, of 72% for the 10% in 50 years probability of exceedance peak ground acceleration levels compared with those underpinning existing building design standards, challenges the choice of metrics upon which design codes are based. As questions of epistemic uncertainty are quantified or resolved, changes in our understanding of how the hazard behaves should inform dialogue between scientists, engineers and policy makers, and a re-appraisal of the metrics used to inform risk management decisions of societal importance.
Simple
Identification info
- Date (Creation)
- 2019-07-09T17:30:00
- Date (Publication)
- 2020-01-06T03:22:51
- Citation identifier
- Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/130342
Identifier
- Codespace
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Digital Object Identifier
- Cited responsible party
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Author Griffin, J.D.
Author Gerstenberger, M.
Author Allen, T.I.
- Purpose
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External Publication
- Status
- Completed
- Point of contact
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice Point of contact Allen, T.I.
Resource provider Positioning and Community Safety Division
- Spatial representation type
- Topic category
-
- Geoscientific information
Extent
Extent
))
- Maintenance and update frequency
- Not planned
Resource format
- Title
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Product data repository: Various Formats
- Website
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Data Store directory containing the digital product files
Data Store directory containing one or more files, possibly in a variety of formats, accessible to Geoscience Australia staff only for internal purposes
- theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
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Natural Hazards
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EARTH SCIENCES
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Earthquake Engineering
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- Keywords
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Published_External
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Resource constraints
- Title
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence
- Alternate title
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CC-BY
- Edition
-
4.0
- Access constraints
- License
- Use constraints
- License
Resource constraints
- Title
-
Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
- Edition date
- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
- Classification
- Unclassified
- Language
- English
- Character encoding
- UTF8
Distribution Information
- Distributor contact
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Distributor Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice
- OnLine resource
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Link to paper
Link to paper
- Distribution format
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html
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Resource lineage
- Statement
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Not supplied
Metadata constraints
- Title
-
Australian Government Security Classification System
- Edition date
- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
- Classification
- Unclassified
Metadata
- Metadata identifier
-
urn:uuid/5d1bfca2-aff4-4be9-b1c5-d59d70e92e2a
- Title
-
GeoNetwork UUID
- Language
- English
- Character encoding
- UTF8
- Contact
-
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice Point of contact Allen, T.I.
Type of resource
- Resource scope
- Document
- Name
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Seismological Research Letters Publication
Alternative metadata reference
- Title
-
Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with
uuid
- Citation identifier
- eCatId/130342
- Date info (Creation)
- 2019-07-09T07:20:36
- Date info (Revision)
- 2019-07-09T07:20:36
Metadata standard
- Title
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AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
- Title
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ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
- Title
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ISO 19115-3
- Title
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Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014
- Edition
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Version 2.0, September 2018
- Citation identifier
- https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/130342