Does PSHA Meet the Needs for Modern Engineering Design In Australia?
Damaging earthquakes in Australia and other regions characterised by low seismicity are considered low probability, high consequence events. Uncertainties in modeling earthquake occurrence rates and ground motions pose unique challenges to forecasting seismic hazard in these regions. In 2018 Geoscience Australia released its National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA18). Results from the NSHA18 indicate significantly lower seismic hazard across almost all Australian localities at the 1/500 annual exceedance probability (AEP) relative to the factors in the Australian earthquake loading standard; the AS1170.4. Due to concerns that the 1/500 AEP hazard factors proposed in the NSHA18 would not assure life safety throughout the continent, the amended AS1170.4 (revised in 2018) retains seismic demands developed in the early 1990s and also introduces a minimum hazard design factor of Z = 0.08 g. The hazard estimates from the NSHA18 have challenged notions of seismic hazard in Australia in terms of the probability of damaging ground motions and raises questions as to whether current practices in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) deliver the outcomes required to protect communities in low-seismicity regions, such as Australia. By contrast, it is also important that the right questions are being asked of hazard modelers in terms of the provision of seismic demand objectives that are fit for purpose. In the United States and Canada, a 1/2475 AEP is used for national hazard maps due to concerns that communities in low-to-moderate seismicity regions are considerably more at risk to extreme ground-motions. The adoption of a 1/2475 AEP seismic demands within the AS1170.4 would bring it in to line with other international building codes in similar tectonic environments and would increase seismic demand factors to levels similar to the 1991 hazard map. This, together with other updates, may be considered for future revisions to the standard.
Presented at the Technical Sessions of the 2021 Seismological Society of America Annual Meeting (SSA)
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Identification info
- Date (Creation)
- 2021-01-08T13:57:00
- Date (Publication)
- 2024-03-20T05:46:49
- Citation identifier
- Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/144655
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- Codespace
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Digital Object Identifier
- Cited responsible party
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Author Allen, T.
PSCD Internal Contact Publisher Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
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- Name
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Seismological Society of America Annual Meeting Technical Sessions, 19-23 April 2021 Online
- Purpose
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Abstract to be submitted to the 2021 Seismological Society of America Annual Meeting (SSA)
- Status
- Completed
- Point of contact
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice Resource provider Place and Communities Division
External Contact Point of contact Allen, T.
Place and Communities Internal Contact
- Spatial representation type
- Topic category
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- Geoscientific information
Extent
Extent
))
- Maintenance and update frequency
- Not planned
Resource format
- Title
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Product data repository: Various Formats
- Website
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Data Store directory containing the digital product files
Data Store directory containing one or more files, possibly in a variety of formats, accessible to Geoscience Australia staff only for internal purposes
- theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
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Natural Hazards
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EARTH SCIENCES
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Earthquake Engineering
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- Keywords
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National Seismic Hazard Assessment 2018 - NSHA18
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earthquake modelling
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probabilistic seismic hazard analysis - PSHA
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- Keywords
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AS1170.4
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Published_External
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Resource constraints
- Title
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence
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CC-BY
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4.0
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Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia) 2021
Resource constraints
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Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
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- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
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- English
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Distributor Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice facsimile
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Link to Conference Proceedings (p212)
Link to Conference Proceedings (p212)
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- OnLine resource
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Link to Conference Page
Link to Conference Page
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Resource lineage
- Statement
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Abstract to be submitted to the 2021 Seismological Society of America Annual Meeting (SSA)
Metadata constraints
- Title
-
Australian Government Security Classification System
- Edition date
- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
- Classification
- Unclassified
Metadata
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urn:uuid/5c5afe85-ceef-4324-a0dd-3d7212fc08b3
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GeoNetwork UUID
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice Owner Allen, T
Place and Communities Internal Contact Point of contact Allen, T.
Place and Communities Internal Contact
Type of resource
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Conference Abstract
Alternative metadata reference
- Title
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Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with
uuid
- Citation identifier
- eCatId/144655
- Date info (Creation)
- 2019-04-08T01:55:29
- Date info (Revision)
- 2019-04-08T01:55:29
Metadata standard
- Title
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AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
- Title
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ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
- Title
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ISO 19115-3
- Title
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Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014
- Edition
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Version 2.0, September 2018
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- https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/122551