Product catalogue
An Empirical Fatality Model for Indonesia Based on a Bayesian Approach
Many earthquakes in Indonesia have caused a large number of fatalities. Disaster risk-reduction of fatalities requires a representative fatality model derived from fatality data caused by historical earthquakes in Indonesia. We develop an empirical fatality model for Indonesia by relating macroseismic intensity to fatality rate using compiled subdistrict level fatality rate data and numerically simulated ground shaking intensity for four recent damaging events. The fatality rate data are compiled by collecting population and fatality statistics of the regions impacted by the selected events. The ground shaking intensity is numerically estimated by incorporating a finite fault model of each event and local site conditions approximated by topographically-based site amplifications. The macroseismic intensity distribution of each event is generated by using ShakeMap software with a selected pair of ground motion predictive equation (GMPE) and ground motion to intensity conversion equation (GMICE). The developed fatality model is a Bayesian generalized linear model where the fatality rate is assumed to follow a mixture of a Bernoulli and a gamma distribution. The probability of zero fatality rate and the mean non-zero fatality rate is linked to a linear function of shaking intensity by the logit and the log link functions, respectively. We estimate posterior distribution of the parameters of the model based on the Hamilton Monte Carlo algorithm. For validation of the developed model we calculate fatalities of the past events from the EXPO-CAT catalog and compare the estimates with the EXPO-CAT fatality records. While the developed fatality model can provide an estimate of the range of fatalities for future events it needs on-going refinement by incorporation of additional fatality rate data from past and future events.
Simple
Identification info
- Date (Publication)
- 2015-01-01T00:00:00
- Citation identifier
- Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/83068
- Cited responsible party
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Author Ghasemi, H.
1 Author Ryu, H.
2
- Point of contact
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Custodian CSEMD
Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice
- Topic category
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- Geoscientific information
- Maintenance and update frequency
- Unknown
Resource format
- Title
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Product data repository: Various Formats
- Website
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Data Store directory containing the digital product files
Data Store directory containing one or more files, possibly in a variety of formats, accessible to Geoscience Australia staff only for internal purposes
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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Earth Sciences
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- {1}
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External Publication
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- {1}
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Pacific Nations
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- {1}
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Hazard Response
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- {1}
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Natural Hazards
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- {1}
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tsunami
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- {1}
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Indonesia
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- {1}
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Published_External
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Resource constraints
- Title
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence
- Alternate title
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CC-BY
- Edition
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4.0
- Access constraints
- License
- Use constraints
- License
Resource constraints
- Title
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Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
- Edition date
- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
- Classification
- Unclassified
- Language
- English
- Character encoding
- UTF8
Distribution Information
- Distributor contact
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Distributor Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice
- OnLine resource
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Link to article
Link to article
- Distribution format
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html
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Resource lineage
- Statement
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Unknown
- Hierarchy level
- Non geographic dataset
- Other
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External Publication
- Description
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Source data not available.
Metadata constraints
- Title
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Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
- Edition date
- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
- Classification
- Unclassified
Metadata
- Metadata identifier
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urn:uuid/0f7e900c-3a73-a6e6-e053-10a3070a6f5f
- Title
-
GeoNetwork UUID
- Language
- English
- Character encoding
- UTF8
- Contact
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice
Type of resource
- Resource scope
- Document
- Name
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GA publication: External publication
Alternative metadata reference
- Title
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Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with
uuid
- Citation identifier
- eCatId/83068
- Date info (Revision)
- 2018-04-11T01:53:33
- Date info (Creation)
- 2015-02-20T00:00:00
Metadata standard
- Title
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AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
- Title
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ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
- Title
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ISO 19115-3
- Title
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Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014
- Edition
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Version 2.0, September 2018
- Citation identifier
- https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/122551