Authors / CoAuthors
Hu, L. | Arthur, C. | Allen, N.
Abstract
<div>Severe wind from tropical cyclones (TC) can cause significant damage to property and infrastructure, and accurately predicting these impacts is essential for ensuring community safety. At Geoscience Australia (GA), the Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) is a statistical-parametric tool designed to estimate the severe wind hazards posed by TCs.</div><div><br></div><div>To assess the performance of TCRM, all TCs impacting Australia from 1998 to 2023 were simulated using various wind profile settings. Since TCRM currently lacks adjustments for local landscape effects on wind speed (e.g., topographic enhancements or variations due to vegetation or built environments), GA’s wind multiplier was applied to convert TCRM’s regional wind to local wind for each TC. Additionally, a new multiplier, derived from the Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation Model (PALM), was used to calculate local wind. The local winds from these two multipliers were then compared and validated against 1-minute Automatic Weather Station (AWS) observations from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). </div><div><br></div><div>The results indicate that the Willoughby wind profile outperforms other wind profiles, with a mean sea level pressure error of just 0.2 hPa compared to AWS observations over the mainland. Although the local wind from both multipliers aligns closely across 82 AWS stations (a mean peak wind gust error of -1 m/s for the GA multiplier and 0.2 m/s for the new multiplier), significant discrepancies may occur in regions with steep mountain ranges, urban areas with high-rise buildings, and other areas with complex topography.</div><div><br></div>
Product Type
document
eCat Id
150013
Contact for the resource
Resource provider
Point of contact
Cnr Jerrabomberra Ave and Hindmarsh Dr GPO Box 378
Canberra
ACT
2601
Australia
Point of contact
Digital Object Identifier
Keywords
- ( Project )
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- TCRM
- ( Project )
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- Tropical Cyclone Risk Model
- ( Project )
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- tropical cyclone
- ( Project )
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- wind multiplier
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- evaluation
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- wind multiplier
- theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
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- Meteorology
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- Published_External
Publication Date
2024-12-02T00:26:33
Creation Date
2024-11-18T05:00:00
Security Constraints
Legal Constraints
Status
completed
Purpose
Evaluation of TCRM model at GA
Maintenance Information
notPlanned
Topic Category
geoscientificInformation
Series Information
GA Record 2024/58
Lineage
<div>TCRM has been developed at GA several years to estimate the severe wind hazards posed by tropical cyclone. This study access the performance of TCRM uing BoM's 1 minute AWS observation in recent 20 years.</div>
Parent Information
Extents
[-44, -9, 112, 154]
Reference System
Spatial Resolution
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