Authors / CoAuthors
Cechet, R.P. | Waters, D. | Arthur, W.C.
Abstract
The Garnaut Climate Change Review commissioned by Australia's State and Territory Governments examined the impacts of, and possible policy responses to, climate change on the Australian economy. This presentation discussed the methodology developed for the Review by Geoscience Australia and the outputs which provided an assessment of the impact of tropical cyclone (TC) hazard on communities in northern Australia. The study utilized predicted changes in the maximum potential intensity (MPI) to define changes in the wind hazard and storm surge potential. The MPI sets a thermodynamic, theoretical upper limit for the distribution of TC intensities for a given vertical temperature and humidity profile and a given location. Associated storm surge impacts were developed using a simple relationship between TC intensity and storm surge height and adopting the IPCC fourth assessment global mid-point sea-level rise predictions. We considered the impact on the residential building stock of severe wind and storm surge hazards associated with a number of IPCC climate change scenarios. Changes in residential building stock, for over 500 coastal statistical local areas (SLA's) from Southeast Queensland anticlockwise to Perth, were forecast using Australian Bureau of Statistics population projections through to 2100. A Probable Maximum Loss (PML) curve for each study region was obtained by considering the return-period hazard over the range from 50 to 5000 years. The average annual cost to the region due to tropical cyclones across this wide time period (5000 years), often referred to as the 'annualised loss', was evaluated for each SLA. Expressing the annualised loss as a percentage of total reconstruction demonstrates the intensity of the risk to a particular community, which is not so evident in simple dollar loss figures.
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nonGeographicDataset
eCat Id
69830
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Cnr Jerrabomberra Ave and Hindmarsh Dr GPO Box 378
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2601
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Keywords
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- External Publication
- ( Theme )
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- risk assessment
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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- Published_Internal
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2010-01-01T00:00:00
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geoscientificInformation
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