Authors / CoAuthors
Chitt-Babu, D. | Cechet, R.P.
Abstract
CSIRO climate change projections based on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report indicate that Tasmania is one of the areas within the Australian region that will experience an increased magnitude of severe winds. This study utilises the Climate Futures for Tasmania (CERF project) fine scale climate projections which provide spatial detail of the increasing wind hazard derived through dynamic-downscaling utilizing a regional climate model forcing by 5 GCM's and two climate change scenarios (detailed by Sanabria and Cechet; this conference). These wind hazard estimates are used to determine the impact of the wind hazard on residential infrastructure in the Tasmanian region. Two regions of Tasmania were assessed, one in the north and one in the south. The risk assessment involves an understanding of exposure and wind vulnerability. Built environment exposure information was provided by the National EXposure Information System (NEXIS) developed by Geoscience Australia. Wind vulnerability relationships (relating gust wind speed to damage) were developed by Geoscience Australia through a series of expert workshops and the analysis of wind damage data. Return periods of exceedence loss levels were evaluated at buildings level across each region. These were subsequently used to evaluate annualised losses, which represent the average annual cost to the region of exposure to the wind hazard if viewed through a very wide window in time. Expressing the annualised loss as a percentage of the total reconstruction value gives a measure of the intensity of the risk to the studied community that is not as evident from simple dollar values. Risk projections for the Tasmanian region will be presented and the relationship between wind hazard and risk explored. These outputs will be crucial to informing climate change adaptation options regarding severe winds which should be of significant concern to planning, construction, emergency services and the community as a whole.
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nonGeographicDataset
eCat Id
69638
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Cnr Jerrabomberra Ave and Hindmarsh Dr GPO Box 378
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- External PublicationAbstract
- ( Theme )
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- risk assessment
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- AU-TAS
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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- Published_Internal
Publication Date
2010-01-01T00:00:00
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geoscientificInformation
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