Authors / CoAuthors
Haynes, M.W.
Abstract
Like many of the basins along Australia's eastern seaboard, there is currently only a limited understanding of the geothermal energy potential of the New South Wales extent of the Clarence-Moreton Basin. To date, no study has examined the existing geological information available to produce an estimate of subsurface temperatures throughout the region. Forward modelling of a basin structure using its expected thermal properties is the process generally used in geothermal studies to estimate temperatures at depth in the Earth's crust. This process has been validated for one-dimensional models such as a drill hole, where extensive information can be provided for a specific location. The process has also seen increasing use in more complex three-dimensional (3D) models, including in areas of sparse data. The overall uncertainties of 3D models, including the influence of the broad assumptions required to undertake them, are generally only poorly examined by their authors and sometimes completely ignored. New methods are presented in this study which will allow estimates and uncertainties to be addressed in a quantitative and justifiable way. Specifically, this study applies Monte Carlo Analysis to constrain uncertainties through random sampling of statistically congruent populations. Particular focus has been placed on the uncertainty in assigning thermal conductivity values to complex and spatially extensive geological formations using only limited data. These geological formations will typically consist of a range of lithological compositions, resulting in a range of spatially variable thermal conductivity values. As a case study these new methods are then applied to the New South Wales extent of the Clarence-Moreton Basin. The structure of the basin has been built using Intrepid Geophysics' 3D GeoModeller software package using data from existing petroleum drill holes, surface mapping and information derived from the FrOGTech SEEBASE study. A range of possible lithological compositions was determined for each of the major geological layers through application of compositional data analysis, using data from deep wells only (>2000 m). In turn, a range of possible thermal properties was determined from rock samples held by the New South Wales Department of Primary Industries and analysed at the Geoscience Australia laboratories. These populations of values were then randomly sampled to create 120 different forward models which were computed using SHEMAT. The results of these have been interpreted to present the best estimate of the expected subsurface temperatures of the basin, and their uncertainties, given the current state of knowledge. These results suggest that the Clarence-Moreton Basin has a moderate geothermal energy potential within an economic drilling depth. The results also show a significant degree of variability between the different thermal modelling runs, which is likely due to the limited data available for the region.
Product Type
nonGeographicDataset
eCat Id
73312
Contact for the resource
Custodian
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Cnr Jerrabomberra Ave and Hindmarsh Dr GPO Box 378
Canberra
ACT
2601
Australia
Keywords
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- External PublicationAbstract
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- geothermal
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- 3D model
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- sedimentary basins
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- Hot Rocks
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- rock properties
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- AU-NSW
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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- Published_Internal
Publication Date
2012-01-30T00:00:00
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geoscientificInformation
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[-30.0, -28.5, 152.5, 153.5]
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