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Assessing the accuracy of predictive models for numerical data: Not r nor r2, why not? Then what?
Assessing the accuracy of predictive models is critical because predictive models have been increasingly used across various disciplines and predictive accuracy determines the quality of resultant predictions. Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r) and the coefficient of determination (r2) are among the most widely used measures for assessing predictive models for numerical data, although they are argued to be biased, insufficient and misleading. In this study, geometrical graphs were used to illustrate what were used in the calculation of r and r2 and simulations were used to demonstrate the behaviour of r and r2 and to compare three accuracy measures under various scenarios. Relevant confusions about r and r2, has been clarified. The calculation of r and r2 is not based on the differences between the predicted and observed values. The existing error measures suffer various limitations and are unable to tell the accuracy. Variance explained by predictive models based on cross-validation (VEcv) is free of these limitations and is a reliable accuracy measure. Legates and McCabe’s efficiency (E1) is also an alternative accuracy measure. The r and r2 do not measure the accuracy and are incorrect accuracy measures. The existing error measures suffer limitations. VEcv and E1 are recommended for assessing the accuracy. The applications of these accuracy measures would encourage accuracy-improved predictive models to be developed to generate predictions for evidence-informed decision-making.
<b>Citation:</b> Li J (2017) Assessing the accuracy of predictive models for numerical data: Not r nor r2, why not? Then what? <o>PLoS ONE</i> 12(8): e0183250. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0183250
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Identification info
- Date (Creation)
- 2016-08-12
- Date (Publication)
- 2024-12-24T00:51:01
- Citation identifier
- Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/101500
- Cited responsible party
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS) Journals
External Contact Author Li, J.
External Contact
- Name
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Public Library of Science (PLoS ONE) Journal
- Issue identification
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Volume 12(8): e0183250
- Page
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1-16
- Purpose
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Manuscript for publication in PLoS ONE journal
- Status
- Completed
- Point of contact
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice Resource provider Place, Space and Communities Division
External Contact Point of contact Huang, Z.
Place and Communities Internal Contact
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- Geoscientific information
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Extent
))
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- As needed
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Product data repository: Various Formats
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FILE:DATA-DIRECTORY
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Data Store directory containing the digital product files
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Data Store directory containing one or more files, possibly in a variety of formats, accessible to Geoscience Australia staff only for internal purposes
- theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
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EARTH SCIENCES
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- Discipline
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predictive models
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- Data centre
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predictive accuracy
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- Keywords
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Published_External
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Resource constraints
- Title
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence
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CC-BY
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4.0
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© Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia) 2017
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Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
- Edition date
- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
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- Unclassified
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- English
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Distributor Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
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Link to Journal
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Manuscript for publication in Public Library of Science (PLoS ONE) journal
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Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
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- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
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urn:uuid/d94ba716-6522-4b45-b18f-a62ee5c7d4ae
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GeoNetwork UUID
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice Point of contact Huang, Z.
Place and Communities Internal Contact
Type of resource
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Journal Article
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Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with uuid
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- Date info (Creation)
- 2025-06-19T23:43:04.081Z
- Date info (Creation)
- 2016-08-12T12:02:30
- Date info (Revision)
- 2025-06-19T23:43:48.415Z
Metadata standard
- Title
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AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
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ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
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ISO 19115-3
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Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014
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Version 2.0, September 2018
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