Product catalogue
Exploring Australian Hazard Map Exceedance Using an Atlas of Historical ShakeMaps
Seismic hazard models, commonly produced through probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, are used to establish earthquake loading requirements for the built environment. However, there is considerable uncertainty in developing seismic hazard models, which require assumptions on seismicity rates and ground-motion models (GMMs) based on the best evidence available to hazard analysts. This paper explores several area-based tests of long-term seismic hazard forecasts for the Australian continent. ShakeMaps are calculated for all earthquakes of MW 4.25 and greater within approximately 200 km of the Australian coastline using the observed seismicity in the past 50 years (1970-2019). A “composite ShakeMap” is generated that extracts the maximum peak ground acceleration “observed” in this 50-year period for any site within the continent. The fractional exceedance area of this composite map is compared with four generations of Australian seismic hazard maps for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (~1/500 annual exceedance probability) developed since 1990.
In general, all these seismic hazard models appear to be conservative relative to the observed ground motions that are estimated to have occurred in the last 50 years. To explore aspects of possible prejudice in this study, the variability in ground-motion exceedance was explored using the Next Generation Attenuation-East GMMs developed for the central and eastern United States. The sensitivity of these results is also tested with the interjection of a rare scenario earthquake with an expected regional recurrence of approximately 5,000 - 10,000 years. While these analyses do not provide a robust assessment of the performance of the candidate seismic hazard for any given location, they do provide—to the first order—a guide to the performance of the respective maps at a continental scale.
This paper was presented at the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2021 Virtual Conference, Nov 25 – 26.
Simple
Identification info
- Date (Creation)
- 2021-10
- Date (Publication)
- 2022-11-10T06:29:31
- Citation identifier
- Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/145963
Identifier
- Codespace
-
Digital Object Identifier
- Cited responsible party
-
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Author Allen, T.
Place and Communities Internal Contact Author Ghasemi, H.
Place and Communities Internal Contact Author Griffin, J.
Place and Communities Internal Contact
- Purpose
-
Paper presented at Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2021 Virtual Conference Paper
- Status
- Completed
- Point of contact
-
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice Point of contact Allen, T.
Place and Communities Internal Contact Resource provider Place, Space and Communities Division
External Contact
- Spatial representation type
- Topic category
-
- Geoscientific information
Extent
Extent
))
- Maintenance and update frequency
- Not planned
Resource format
- Title
-
Product data repository: Various Formats
- Website
-
Data Store directory containing the digital product files
Data Store directory containing one or more files, possibly in a variety of formats, accessible to Geoscience Australia staff only for internal purposes
- theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
-
-
Natural Hazards
-
EARTH SCIENCES
-
Earthquake Engineering
-
- Discipline
-
-
Earthquake Hazard
-
- Product
-
-
ShakeMap
-
- Theme
-
-
Ground-motion exceedance
-
- Keywords
-
-
seismic hazard maps
-
- Keywords
-
-
Published_External
-
Resource constraints
- Title
-
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence
- Alternate title
-
CC-BY
- Edition
-
4.0
- Access constraints
- License
- Use constraints
- License
Resource constraints
- Title
-
Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
- Edition date
- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
- Classification
- Unclassified
Associated resource
- Association Type
- Was informed by
- Title
-
The 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment: Model overview
- Citation identifier
- 123020
- Citation identifier
- 9456a1ee-400d-43fa-bce3-58d1cd8cdf55
Associated resource
- Association Type
- Was informed by
- Title
-
The 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment for Australia – Data package, maps and grid values
- Citation identifier
- 123028
- Citation identifier
- 1be4f6be-a3a2-4ec5-b8af-4018f96243be
Associated resource
- Association Type
- Was informed by
- Title
-
The 2018 national seismic hazard assessment of Australia: Quantifying hazard changes and model uncertainties
- Citation identifier
- 126324
- Citation identifier
- 9d84d182-eb0d-4637-b5cd-580b7da85cde
- Language
- English
- Character encoding
- UTF8
Distribution Information
- Distributor contact
-
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Distributor Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice
- OnLine resource
-
Link to Conference Proceedings
Link to Conference Proceedings
- Distribution format
-
- OnLine resource
-
Link to Presentation
Link to Presentation
- Distribution format
-
Resource lineage
- Statement
-
Based on the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment
Paper presented at Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2021 Virtual Conference Paper
Metadata constraints
- Title
-
Australian Government Security Classification System
- Edition date
- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
- Classification
- Unclassified
Metadata
- Metadata identifier
-
urn:uuid/c87fb8e8-25e2-4820-9ad8-89aa037935fd
- Title
-
GeoNetwork UUID
- Language
- English
- Character encoding
- UTF8
- Contact
-
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice Owner Allen, T
Internal Contact Point of contact Allen, T.
Place and Communities Internal Contact
Type of resource
- Resource scope
- Document
- Name
-
Journal Articles and Conference Papers
Alternative metadata reference
- Title
-
Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with
uuid
- Citation identifier
- eCatId/145963
- Date info (Creation)
- 2019-04-08T01:55:29
- Date info (Revision)
- 2019-04-08T01:55:29
Metadata standard
- Title
-
AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
- Title
-
ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
- Title
-
ISO 19115-3
- Title
-
Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014
- Edition
-
Version 2.0, September 2018
- Citation identifier
- https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/122551