<div>Mineral prospectivity studies seek to map evidence of mineral system activity, with the aim of informing mineral exploration decisions and guiding exploration in the face of uncertainty. These studies leverage the growing volumes of information that are available to characterise the lithosphere by compiling covariate (or feature) grids that represent key mineral system ingredients. Previous studies have been categorised as either “knowledge-driven” or “data-driven” approaches depending on whether these grids are integrated via expert elicitation or by the empirical relationship to known mineralisation, respectively. However, to our knowledge, the underlying modelling framework and assumptions have not been systematically reviewed to understand how choices in the approach to the problem influence modelling outcomes. Here we show the broad mathematical equivalence in these approaches and highlight the limitations inherent when optimising to minimise misfit in potentially under-determined problems. We argue that advances in mineral prospectivity are more likely to be driven by careful consideration of the model selection problem. Focusing effort on model selection will not only drive more robust mineral prospectivity predictions but may also simultaneously refine our understanding of key mineral system processes. To build on these results, we present the Mineral Potential Toolkit; a software repository to facilitate feature engineering, statistical appraisal, and quantitative prospectivity modelling. The toolkit enables a novel approach that combines the best aspects of previous methods. Abstract presented to the 26th World Mining Congress 2023 (https://wmc2023.org/)

<div>Building on the national-scale thermochemical tomographic inversions of Haynes & Afonso (2023), we infer regions of subduction-driven metasomatic alteration within the Australia sub-continental lithospheric mantle. Such regions are inferred on the basis of age-corrected magnesium number anomalies for bulk composition of the lithospheric mantle, and the spatial correlation of these features with electrical conductors. This defines a mappable criteria for mineral system conceptual models focused on the transport of melts from re-enriched upper mantle sources. Mapping this feature through stochastic uncertainty propogation of inferred mantle compositions enables us to quantify the level of agreement in the spatial constraints on the feature. Here, we present a voting map that quantifies the relative presence or absence of such features across Australia under any arbitrary model realisation.</div><div><br></div><div>Geoscience Australia's Exploring for the Future program provides precompetitive information to inform decision-making by government, community and industry on the sustainable development of Australia's mineral, energy and groundwater resources. By gathering, analysing and interpreting new and existing precompetitive geoscience data and knowledge, we are building a national picture of Australia's geology and resource potential. This leads to a strong economy, resilient society and sustainable environment for the benefit of all Australians. This includes supporting Australia's transition to a low emissions economy, strong resources and agriculture sectors, and economic opportunities and social benefits for Australia's regional and remote communities. The Exploring for the Future program, which commenced in 2016, is an eight year, $225m investment by the Australian Government.</div>