Product catalogue
In defence of low hazard in stable continental regions: the likelihood of the 1991 seismic hazard map of Australia being correct
<p>The hazard factors in every version of AS 1170.4 since 1993 have been based on a seismic hazard map published in 1991. In this paper I statistically test the validity of that 1991 map.
<p>Two methods are used to calculate the hazard for 24+ sites across Australia. Firstly, for each site I calculate how many standard deviations (?1) separate the 1991 hazard value from the calculated PSHA value. Secondly, the magnitude frequency distribution (MFD; i.e. a and b values) is adjusted so that the calculated hazard matches the 1991 hazard value. The number of standard deviations (?2) in the MFD that separate the adjusted MFD differs from the best estimate MFD is subsequently calculated. The first method was applied using four seismic source models (AUS6, DIM-AUS, NSHM13 and these combined), while the second method used NSHM13 only. The average number of standard deviations was calculated from the best 20 of the 24 sites. These statistics are considered a test the validity of the 1991 map. The two methods using five models in total all give similar results. The 1991 map is found, on average, to overestimate the hazard by 3 standard deviations. This suggests that the 1991 map is best described as a 95th+ percentile map.
<p>Practitioners using this map, whether for setting building standards or assessing insurance exposure, need to be conscious that the seismic design values are not scientifically valid relative to modern mean probabilistic seismic hazard assessments.
Simple
Identification info
- Date (Creation)
- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
- Date (Publication)
- 2020-05-12T00:36:48
- Citation identifier
- Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/123888
- Cited responsible party
-
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Author Leonard, M.
- Purpose
-
Conference Paper
- Status
- Completed
- Point of contact
-
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Allen, T.
- Spatial representation type
- Topic category
-
- Geoscientific information
Extent
Extent
))
- Maintenance and update frequency
- Not planned
Resource format
- Title
-
Product data repository: Various Formats
- Website
-
Data Store directory containing the digital product files
Data Store directory containing one or more files, possibly in a variety of formats, accessible to Geoscience Australia staff only for internal purposes
- Sub-Topic Category
-
-
earthquake hazard
-
- theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
-
-
EARTH SCIENCES
-
- Keywords
-
-
Published_External
-
Resource constraints
- Title
-
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence
- Alternate title
-
CC-BY
- Edition
-
4.0
- Access constraints
- License
- Use constraints
- License
Resource constraints
- Title
-
Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
- Edition date
- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
- Classification
- Unclassified
- Language
- English
- Character encoding
- UTF8
Distribution Information
- Distributor contact
-
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Distributor Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice
- OnLine resource
-
Download the document (pdf) [420 KB]
Download the document (pdf) [420 KB]
- Distribution format
-
-
pdf
-
Resource lineage
- Statement
-
Not supplied
- Hierarchy level
- Dataset
Metadata constraints
- Title
-
Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
- Edition date
- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
- Classification
- Unclassified
Metadata
- Metadata identifier
-
urn:uuid/df95ba47-3311-473e-ae1a-1f4e9e9c1a97
- Title
-
GeoNetwork UUID
- Language
- English
- Character encoding
- UTF8
- Contact
-
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice Point of contact Allen, T.
Type of resource
- Resource scope
- Document
- Name
-
GA publication: External publication
Alternative metadata reference
- Title
-
Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with
uuid
- Citation identifier
- eCatId/123888
- Date info (Creation)
- 2018-11-01T04:09:09
- Date info (Revision)
- 2018-11-01T04:09:09
Metadata standard
- Title
-
AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
- Title
-
ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
- Title
-
ISO 19115-3
- Title
-
Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014
- Edition
-
Version 2.0, September 2018
- Citation identifier
- https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/122551