Earthquake forecasting from paleoseismic records

<div>Forecasting large earthquakes along active faults is of critical importance for seismic hazard assessment. Statistical models of recurrence intervals based on compilations of paleoseismic data provide a forecasting tool. Here we compare five models and use Bayesian model-averaging to produce time-dependent, probabilistic forecasts of large earthquakes along 93 fault segments worldwide. This approach allows better use of the measurement errors associated with paleoseismic records and accounts for the uncertainty around model choice. Our results indicate that although the majority of fault segments (65/93) in the catalogue favour a single best model, 28 benefit from a model-averaging approach. We provide earthquake rupture probabilities for the next 50 years and forecast the occurrence times of the next rupture for all the fault segments. Our findings suggest that there is no universal model for large earthquake recurrence, and an ensemble forecasting approach is desirable when dealing with paleoseismic records with few data points and large measurement errors.


<b>Citation:</b> Wang, T., Griffin, J.D., Brenna, M. et al. Earthquake forecasting from paleoseismic records. <i>Nat Commun</i><b> 15</b>, 1944 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-46258-z

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Date (Creation)
2023-07-20T08:00:00
Date (Publication)
2024-08-02T04:41:30
Citation identifier
Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/148627

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Author

Wang, T.

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Author

Griffin, J.

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Author

Brenna, M.

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Author

Fletcher, D.

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Zeng, J.

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Stirling, M.W.

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Author

Dillingham, P.

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Author

Kang, J.

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Springer Nature

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Nature Communications

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Volume 15, Issue 1944 (2024)

Purpose

Scientific paper published in Nature Communications

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Completed
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Place and Communities Division

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Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

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Griffin, J.

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  • Geoscientific information

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Product data repository: Various Formats

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Data Store directory containing the digital product files

Data Store directory containing one or more files, possibly in a variety of formats, accessible to Geoscience Australia staff only for internal purposes

Keywords

  • earthquake hazard

Keywords

  • statistics

Keywords

  • forecasting

theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf

  • Natural Hazards

Keywords

  • Published_External

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Title

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence

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CC-BY

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4.0

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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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© The Author(s) 2024

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Australian Government Security Classification System

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2018-11-01T00:00:00
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Unclassified
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Australian Government Security Classification System

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English
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UTF8

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Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

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<div>This is a scientific paper published in Nature Communications.</div><div> https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46258-z </div>

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Title

Australian Government Security Classification System

Edition date
2018-11-01T00:00:00
Website

https://www.protectivesecurity.gov.au/Pages/default.aspx

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Unclassified

Metadata

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urn:uuid/26d7bb86-bb92-4a21-9ed7-a1efbbe14ad5

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English
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UTF8
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Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

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Griffin, J.

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Journal Article / Conference Paper

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Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with

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eCatId/148627

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https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/static/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/26d7bb86-bb92-4a21-9ed7-a1efbbe14ad5

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https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/26d7bb86-bb92-4a21-9ed7-a1efbbe14ad5

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Date info (Creation)
2024-08-02T04:24:23
Date info (Revision)
2024-08-02T04:24:23

Metadata standard

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AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014

Metadata standard

Title

ISO 19115-1:2014

Metadata standard

Title

ISO 19115-3

Title

Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014

Edition

Version 2.0, September 2018

Citation identifier
http://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/122551

 
 

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theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
Natural Hazards

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