Authors / CoAuthors
Horspool, N. | Pranantyo, I. | Griffin, J. | Latief, H. | Natawidjaja, D.H.
Abstract
We present the first national probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment considers tsunami generated from near-field earthquakes sources around Indonesia as well as regional and far-field sources, to define the tsunami hazard at the coastline. The PTHA methodology is based on the established stochastic event-based approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. The earthquake source information is primarily based on the recent Indonesian National Seismic Hazard Map and included a consensus-workshop with Indonesia's leading tsunami and earthquake scientists to finalize the seismic source models and logic trees to include epistemic uncertainty. Results are presented in the form of tsunami hazard maps showing the expected tsunami height at the coast for a given return period, and also as tsunami probability maps, showing the probability of exceeding a tsunami height of 0.5m and 3.0m at the coast. These heights define the thresholds for different tsunami warning levels in the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS). The results show that for short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, the islands of Nias and Mentawai. For longer return periods (>500 years), the tsunami hazard in Eastern Indonesia (north Papua, north Sulawesi) is nearly as high as that along the Sunda Arc. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters is conducted by sampling branches of the logic tree using a monte-carlo approach to constrain the relative importance of each input parameter. These results can be used to underpin evidence-based decision making by disaster managers to prioritize tsunami mitigation such as developing detailed inundation simulations for evacuation planning.
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nonGeographicDataset
eCat Id
74442
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- External PublicationAbstract
- ( Theme )
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- tsunamis
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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- Published_Internal
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2012-07-27T00:00:00
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