Prediction of macroseismic intensities for global active crustal earthquakes  

Authors / CoAuthors

Allen, T.I. | Wald, D.J. | Worden, C.B.

Abstract

We develop globally applicable macroseismic Intensity Prediction Equations (IPEs) for earthquakes of moment magnitude MW 5.0 to 7.9 and intensities of degree II and greater for distances less than Rrup 300km. The IPEs are developed for two distance metrics: closest distance to rupture Rrup, and hypocentral distance, Rhyp. The key objective for developing the model based on hypocentral distance in addition to more rigorous and standard measure Rrup is to provide an IPE which can be used in near real-time earthquake response systems anywhere in the world, where information regarding the rupture dimensions of a fault may not be known in the immediate aftermath of the event. We observe that our models, particularly the model for the Rrup distance metric, generally have low median residuals with magnitude and distance. We provide distance-dependent intra-event uncertainties, in addition inter-event bias uncertainty. In particular, we address whether the direct use of IPEs lead to a reduction in overall uncertainties when compared to methods which use a combination of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and ground-motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs). Finally, we derive intensity-based site amplification factors given the predicted intensity and proxy estimates of near-surface shear-wave velocity. However, we find that these amplification factors lead to little, if any significant reduction of intensity residuals. This is in part due to the observation that the median site condition for intensity observations is approximately near the NEHRP site-class CD.

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nonGeographicDataset

eCat Id

70626

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Keywords

• External Publication

( Theme )

• earthquakes

( Theme )

• risk assessment

Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)

• Earth Sciences

• Published_Internal

Publication Date

2010-01-01T00:00:00

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Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem    

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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence    

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geoscientificInformation

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Spatial Resolution

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