Authors / CoAuthors
Allen, T.I. | Wald, D.J.
Abstract
In Global ShakeMap (GSM) applications where access to real-time ground-motion data - which constrains the shaking - is often limited, we must rapidly estimate the shaking distribution in the earthquake source region using solely predictive techniques. Current ShakeMap practice is to first calculate instrumental ground motions using a Ground-Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). These instrumental ground motions are subsequently converted to macroseismic intensities, which are employed to evaluate human exposure to potentially fatal levels of ground-shaking in PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response). Here, we use the combined dataset of global instrumental and macroseismic intensity ground motion data gathered for the Atlas of ShakeMaps (Allen et al., this meeting) for evaluating the GSM approach. Several commonly used GMPEs are evaluated for active tectonic crust, subduction zones, and stable continental regions. Using our preferred instrumental GMPE, we subsequently evaluate peak motion to intensity conversion equations. Finally, we evaluate several intensity prediction equations against the ShakeMap Atlas dataset. This review has led us to recommend several fundamental changes to current GSM practice, particularly in the prediction of active crustal ground motions. We also recommend that macroseismic intensities should be predicted using conversion equations that consider earthquake magnitude and distance to rupture, in addition to peak ground motions. Though not exhaustive, this review provides a comprehensive analysis of GMPEs and macroseismic intensity prediction techniques in different tectonic regimes against a large dataset of global ground motion data. The primary purpose of this study is to evaluate these techniques with a view of improving current practices in rapid ground motion prediction for the GSM and PAGER systems.
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nonGeographicDataset
eCat Id
68528
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Keywords
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- External PublicationAbstract
- ( Theme )
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- earthquakes
- ( Theme )
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- risk assessment
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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- Published_Internal
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2009-01-01T00:00:00
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80
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