Authors / CoAuthors
Griffin, J. | Weatherill, G. | Allen, T.
Abstract
Four smoothed seismicity models were submitted for consideration to the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA18). Three of the models used fixed smoothing bandwidths, each with slightly different implementations, while the fourth used an adaptive smoothing bandwidth that varies spatially based on earthquake density. In this paper we assess the performance of these models at forecasting activity rates over decadal timescales by using part of the earthquake catalogue used for NSHA18 to develop the models and calculating the log-likelihood of the model activity rates against the remainder of the catalogue. We test the performance of the models at forecasting rates of earthquakes of different magnitudes over different lengths of training and forecast periods, and compare the use of non-declustered and declustered earthquake catalogues. We test for time-dependence by running the comparisons sequentially and using an earthquake catalogue randomised in time. The results are used to evaluate and inform the final implementation of the smoothed seismicity models for calculating 10% in 50 year probability ground motion exceedances for the NSHA18. This abstract was submitted and presented to the 2017 Australian Earthquake Engineering Society Conference (AEES) ( https://aees.org.au/2017-aees-conference/)
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document
eCat Id
111343
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Cnr Jerrabomberra Ave and Hindmarsh Dr GPO Box 378
Canberra
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Australia
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- theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
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- EARTH SCIENCES
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- national seismic hazard assessment
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- smoothed seismicity
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- earthquake forecast testing
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- Published_External
Publication Date
2023-10-24T22:31:18
Creation Date
2017-06-08T00:00:00
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Abstract for Australian Earthquake Engineering Society conference 2017
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geoscientificInformation
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Australian Earthquake Engineering Society (AEES) Conference, 24-26 November 2017, Canberra, ACT
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Abstract for Australian Earthquake Engineering Society conference 2017
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[-54.75, -9.2402, 112.92, 159.11]
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Spatial Resolution
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