Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis at regional and national scale: state of the art and future challenges

Seismic hazard modelling is a multi-disciplinary science that aims to forecast earthquake occurrence and its resultant ground shaking. Such seismic hazard models consist of a probabilistic framework that models the flow of uncertainty across a complex system; typically, this includes at least two model-components developed from earth science: seismic source models, and ground motion prediction models. Although there is no scientific prescription for the length of the forecasting time-window, the most common probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA hereafter) consider forecasting probabilities of ground shaking in time windows of 30 to 50 years. These types of models are the target of this review paper. Although the core methods and assumptions of such a modelling have largely remained unchanged since they were first developed more than 50 years ago, we will review the most recent initiatives which are facing the difficult task of meeting both the increasingly sophisticated demands of society and keeping pace with advances in our scientific understanding. A need for more accurate and precise hazard forecasting must be balanced with increased quantification of uncertainty and new challenges such as moving from time-independent hazard to forecasts that are time-dependent and specific to the time-period of interest. Meeting these challenges requires the development of science-driven models which integrate at best all information available, the adoption of proper mathematical frameworks to quantify the different types of uncertainties in the source and ground motion components of the hazard model, and the development of a proper testing phase of the hazard model to quantify the consistency and skill of the hazard model. We review the state-of-the-art of the national seismic hazard modeling, and how the most innovative approaches try to address future challenges.

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Date (Creation)
2019-06-04T12:35:00
Date (Publication)
2020-03-03T04:17:01
Citation identifier
Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/129586

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Codespace

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Gerstenberger, M.

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Marzocchi, W.

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Allen, T.

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Pagani, M.M.

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Adams, J.

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Danciu, L.

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Field, E.

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Fujiwara, H.

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Luco, N.

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Ma, K.-F.

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Meletti, C.

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Petersen, M.

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External Publication

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Accepted
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Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

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Allen, T.I.
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  • Geoscientific information

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Product data repository: Various Formats

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Data Store directory containing the digital product files

Data Store directory containing one or more files, possibly in a variety of formats, accessible to Geoscience Australia staff only for internal purposes

theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf

  • EARTH SCIENCES

  • Earthquake Engineering

Keywords

  • Earthquake Hazard

Keywords

  • Published_External

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Title

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence

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CC-BY

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4.0

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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/

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License

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Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem

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2018-11-01T00:00:00
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https://www.protectivesecurity.gov.au/Pages/default.aspx

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Unclassified
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English
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UTF8

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Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

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Title

Australian Government Security Classification System

Edition date
2018-11-01T00:00:00
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https://www.protectivesecurity.gov.au/Pages/default.aspx

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Unclassified

Metadata

Metadata identifier
urn:uuid/73753845-872a-49e1-bf13-350aec77c482

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GeoNetwork UUID

Language
English
Character encoding
UTF8
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details
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Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

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Allen, T.I.

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GA publication: External publication

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Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with

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eCatId/129586

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https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/73753845-872a-49e1-bf13-350aec77c482

Date info (Creation)
2019-06-04T02:45:23
Date info (Revision)
2019-06-04T02:45:23

Metadata standard

Title

AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014

Metadata standard

Title

ISO 19115-1:2014

Metadata standard

Title

ISO 19115-3

Title

Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014

Edition

Version 2.0, September 2018

Citation identifier
https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/129586

 
 

Spatial extent

N
S
E
W


Keywords

Earthquake Hazard
theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
EARTH SCIENCES Earthquake Engineering

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