Product catalogue
Periodicity and Clustering in the Long-term Earthquake Record
Instrumentally observed earthquakes sequences typically show clusters of earthquakes interspersed with periods of quiescence. These ‘bursty’ sequences also have correlated inter-event times (‘long-term memory’). In contrast, elastic rebound theory forms the basis of the standard earthquake cycle model, and predicts large earthquakes to occur regularly through cycles of strain accumulation and release (periodicity). In this model the conditional probability of future large earthquakes is reduced immediately following fault rupture, and inter-event times are independent. Here we use the burstiness and memory coefficient metrics to characterize more than 100 long-term earthquake records. We find that large earthquake occurrence on the majority of Earth’s faults is weakly periodic and does not exhibit long-term memory; earthquakes occur more regularly than a random Poisson process although inter-event times are variable. In contrast, clustering occurs in slowly deforming regions (annual rates < 2 x 10-4), and is not explained by elastic rebound theory.
<b>Citation:</b> Griffin, J. D., Stirling, M. W., & Wang, T. (2020). Periodicity and clustering in the long‐term earthquake record. <i>Geophysical Research Letters</i>, 47, e2020GL089272. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089272
Simple
Identification info
- Date (Creation)
- 2020-07-01
- Date (Publication)
- 2023-10-24T23:36:34
- Citation identifier
- Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/144206
Identifier
- Codespace
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Digital Object Identifier
- Cited responsible party
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Author Griffin, J.
Author Stirling, M.
Author Wang, T.
External Contact Publisher American Geophysical Union - AGU
External Contact
- Name
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Geophysical Research Letters
- Issue identification
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Volume 47, Issue 22, 28 November 2020
- Purpose
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Article written for submission to Geophysical Research Letters
- Status
- Completed
- Point of contact
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice Resource provider Place and Communities Division
External Contact Point of contact Griffin, J.
Place and Communities Internal Contact
- Spatial representation type
- Topic category
-
- Geoscientific information
Extent
Extent
))
- Maintenance and update frequency
- As needed
Resource format
- Title
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Product data repository: Various Formats
- Website
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Data Store directory containing the digital product files
Data Store directory containing one or more files, possibly in a variety of formats, accessible to Geoscience Australia staff only for internal purposes
- theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
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GEOLOGY
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GEOPHYSICS
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EARTH SCIENCES
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- Keywords
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earthquake hazard
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- Keywords
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elastic rebound theory
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- Keywords
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periodicity
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- Keywords
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clustering
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- Keywords
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Published_External
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Resource constraints
- Title
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence
- Alternate title
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CC-BY
- Edition
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4.0
- Access constraints
- License
- Use constraints
- License
- Other constraints
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©2020. The Authors.
Resource constraints
- Title
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Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
- Edition date
- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
- Classification
- Unclassified
- Language
- English
- Character encoding
- UTF8
Distribution Information
- Distributor contact
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Distributor Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice
- OnLine resource
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Link to Journal
Link to Journal
- Distribution format
-
Resource lineage
- Statement
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Developed as part of Griffin's PhD conducted at Otago University
Metadata constraints
- Title
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Australian Government Security Classification System
- Edition date
- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
- Classification
- Unclassified
Metadata
- Metadata identifier
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urn:uuid/08f26211-f451-4668-b8fc-3969c5e84193
- Title
-
GeoNetwork UUID
- Language
- English
- Character encoding
- UTF8
- Contact
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice Owner Griffin, J.
Place and Communities Internal Contact Point of contact Griffin, J.
Place and Communities Internal Contact
Type of resource
- Resource scope
- Document
- Name
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Journal Articles and Conference Papers
Alternative metadata reference
- Title
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Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with
uuid
- Citation identifier
- eCatId/144206
- Date info (Creation)
- 2019-04-08T01:55:29
- Date info (Revision)
- 2019-04-08T01:55:29
Metadata standard
- Title
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AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
- Title
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ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
- Title
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ISO 19115-3
- Title
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Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014
- Edition
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Version 2.0, September 2018
- Citation identifier
- https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/122551