The effect of uncertainty in earthquake fault parameters on the maximum wave height from a tsunami propagation model  

Authors / CoAuthors

Burbidge, D. | Mueller, C. | Power, W.

Abstract

We have run several thousand tsunami propagation models in order to determine the effect of uncertainty in an earthquake's rupture parameters (specifically strike, dip, rake, depth and magnitude) on the maximum wave height of the tsunami that it creates. We have shown that even for the simple case of a tsunami propagating over flat bathymetry, the Coefficient of Variation (CoV) of the maximum wave height was a complex function of the choice of rupture parameter, distance and azimuth. For example, if the strike of the fault was varied, the CoV was at maximum on either side of the tsunami beam, but if the dip was varied the CoV was at a maximum along the strike of the rupture. We then created maps of the skewness of the distribution of the maximum wave height. They also showed a complex dependence on the choice of the rupture parameter, azimuth and distance. Finally, we have examined the effect of a realistic bathymetry on CoV and skewness by mapping them for three hypothetical earthquakes on different types of subduction zones (Kermadec, Java and the Solomon Islands). These examples showed that the areas of shallow bathymetry in either the local or far field can also make a significant difference to both the CoV and skewness of the distribution of maximum tsunami wave heights at a point.

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nonGeographicDataset

eCat Id

82480

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Keywords

• External PublicationScientific Journal Paper

( Theme )

• earthquakes

( Theme )

• tsunamis

Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)

• Geophysics

• Published_External

Publication Date

2014-01-01T00:00:00

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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence    

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Journal: Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Science  

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