Authors / CoAuthors
Unknown
Abstract
This use of this data should be carried out with the knowledge of the contained metadata and with reference to the associated report provided by Geoscience Australia with this data (Reforming Planning Processes Trial: Rockhampton 2050). A copy of this report is available from the the Geoscience Australia website (http://www.ga.gov.au/sales) or the Geoscience Australia sales office (sales@ga.gov.au, 1800 800 173). This raster file identifes the future climate bushfire hazard for the Rockhamtpon study region. The name of the file indicates the content; either 50 or 100 year Return Period (RP), 2 or 3 model (General Circulation Model) average and the time period: 2050 or 2090.
Product Type
dataset
eCat Id
77367
Contact for the resource
Custodian
Point of contact
Cnr Jerrabomberra Ave and Hindmarsh Dr GPO Box 378
Canberra
ACT
2601
Australia
Keywords
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- GIS Dataset
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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- Published_Internal
Publication Date
2013-08-21T00:00:00
Creation Date
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Purpose
Maintenance Information
notPlanned
Topic Category
geoscientificInformation
Series Information
Lineage
The extract below is summarised from the technical report. The metadata attached to the data is more extensive and can be viewed via ArcCatalog. See the technical report for tables, images and reference list referenced in the summary. This study utilised data (climate simulations) from three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) being forced by the A2 SRES (A2; see Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000) Green House Gas (GHG) emissions scenario and then downscaled using a Regional Climate Model (RCM). CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research produced high-resolution climate change projections for the eastern part of the Australian continent as part of the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative project (CSIRO 2012). We utilised the new high-resolution projections provided by CSIRO to obtain a 0.15C grid of meteorological parameters (approx 15 km horizontal resolution) across the eastern part of the continent (Latitude -10?S to -50?S; Longitude 135?E to 155?E) generated by downscaling the GCMs using the CSIRO RCM, the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM - McGregor, 2005; McGregor and Dix 2008). Three GCMs were dynamically downscaled using CCAM at the grid resolution of 0.15C for the period 1971-2100. The GCMs selected were ECHAM 5 (Max-Planck Institut (Germany)), GFDL_CM 2.1 (Princeton Univ./NOAA (USA)), and MIROC 3.2 medres (Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (Japan)). The model selection was based on an assessment by Smith and Chandler (2009) that examined the ability of selected models to reproduce the present-day climate of the Australian region. Forest Fire Danger Index For current climate, the FFDI was obtained utilising the observational record, which spanned four decades in the Central Queensland region. High-resolution spatial detail for the FFDI was obtained by using a modelling approach that considered a number of extreme events that were identified as 'typical' of the type of event that would be experienced for a 50 year ARI or 100 year ARI event. For future climate, the GCMs were initially run in 'control' mode where the present-day (1990) atmospheric forcings were kept constant. From 1991 to 2100 the atmospheric forcing followed the A2 scenario (Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000) resulting in a change within each model from the 'control' climate. Three periods of the simulation within each of the three models were considered: - (Dataset 1) 1971 - 1990 (considered as the current climate [CC] simulation) - (Dataset 2) 2041 - 2060 (considered as the simulated climate of 2050) - (Dataset 3) 2081 - 2100 (considered as the simulated climate of 2090) The maximum FFDI for the Rockhampton region was calculated for each day in these datasets (as with the observed current climate data) and extreme value statistics were employed to determine the magnitude of the 50 year ARI [50ARI] and 100 year ARI [100ARI] FFDI event. Finally, the FFDI for the observed current climate data was scaled by the simulated data (see equations below) to determine how the FFDI would be modified in a new climate. 2050: 50ARI (2050) = [50ARI (2041-2060) / 50ARI (1971-1990)] x 50ARI (observed current climate) 100ARI (2050) = [100ARI (2041-2060) / 100ARI (1971-1990)] x 100ARI (observed current climate) 2090: 50ARI (2090) = [50ARI (2081-2100) / 50ARI (1971-1990)] x 50ARI (observed current climate) 100ARI (2090) = [100ARI (2081-2100) / 100ARI (1971-1990)] x 100ARI (observed current climate) NOTE: The ensemble average of the three downscaled GCMs was used to provide estimates for the 50 year ARI and the 100 year ARI FFDI predictors that inform the future climate FFDI. For the 100 year ARI estimate for 2090, the MIROC3.2 model was not used as it gave extremely high FFDI values compared with the other two models. The FFDI is an exponential index therefore care needs to be taken that any significant model bias has been removed before calculating the FFDI values.
Parent Information
Extents
[-23.6073, -22.9778, 150.0851, 150.9521]
Reference System
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