Authors / CoAuthors
Sanabria, L.A. | Cechet, R.P.
Abstract
Severe wind is one of the major natural hazards in Australia. The main contributors to economic loss in Australia are tropical cyclones, thunderstorms and sub-tropical (synoptic) storms. Geoscience Australia's Risk and Impact Analysis Group (RIAG) is developing mathematical models to study a number of natural hazards including wind hazard. This study examines synoptic wind hazard under current and future climate scenarios using RIAG's synoptic wind hazard model. This model can be used in non-cyclonic regions of Australia (Region A in the Australian-New Zealand Wind Loading Standard; AS/NZS 1170.2:2002) which are dominated by synoptic and thunderstorm winds. The methodology to study synoptic wind hazard involves a combination of three models: - a statistical model (ie. a model based on observed data) to quantify wind hazard using extreme value distributions; - a technique to extract and process wind speeds from a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM), which produces gridded hourly 'maximum time-step mean' wind speed and direction fields; and - a Monte Carlo method to generate gust wind speeds from the RCM mean winds. Gust wind speeds are generated by a numerical convolution of the modelled mean wind speed distribution and a distribution of observed 'regional' gust factor. To illustrate the methodology, wind hazard calculations under current and future climate conditions for the Australian state of Tasmania will be presented. The results show increases in synoptic wind hazard in some parts of the state especially at the end of this century.
Product Type
nonGeographicDataset
eCat Id
71839
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Cnr Jerrabomberra Ave and Hindmarsh Dr GPO Box 378
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Keywords
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- External PublicationAbstract
- ( Theme )
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- risk assessment
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- AU-NT
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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- Published_Internal
Publication Date
2011-01-01T00:00:00
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geoscientificInformation
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