Authors / CoAuthors
Sanabria, L.A. | Cechet, R.P.
Abstract
Tropical cyclones, thunderstorms and sub-tropical storms can generate extreme winds that can cause significant economic loss. Severe wind is one of the major natural hazards in Australia. The Geoscience Australia's Risk and Impact Analysis Group (RIAG) is developing mathematical models to study a number of natural hazards including wind hazard. In this study, RIAG's wind hazard model for non-cyclonic regions of Australia (Region A in the Australian-New Zealand Wind Loading Standard; AS/NZS 1170.2(2010)) for both current and a range of projected future climate are discussed. The methodology involves a combination of 3 models: - A Statistical Model (ie. a model based on observed data) to quantify wind hazard using extreme value distributions. - A technique to extract and process wind speeds from a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) which produces gridded hourly 'maximum time-step mean' wind speed and direction fields, and a - Monte Carlo method to generate gust wind speeds from the RCM mean winds. Gust wind speeds are generated by a numerical convolution of the mean wind speed distribution and a regional 'observed' gust factor. Wind hazard at a particular location is affected by the corresponding wind direction. In the last part of this paper a methodology to calculate wind direction multipliers over a region is presented. These multipliers are used to assess the actual wind hazard at the given location. To illustrate the methodology involved with the calculation of severe wind hazard, including the effect of wind direction, analysis over the Australian state of Tasmania will be presented (current and future climate).
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nonGeographicDataset
eCat Id
71166
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- External PublicationAbstract
- ( Theme )
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- risk assessment
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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- Published_Internal
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2011-01-01T00:00:00
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