Authors / CoAuthors
Arthur, W.C.
Abstract
The short historical record of tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region is insufficient for estimating return period wind speeds at long return periods (greater than 100 years). Utilising the auto-correlated nature of tropical cyclone behaviour (forward speed and direction, intensity and size), Geoscience Australia has developed a statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclone behaviour to generate synthetic event sets that are statistically similar to the historical record. The track model is auto-regressive, with lag-1 auto-regression used for forward speed and bearing, and lag-2 auto-regression applied to the intensity and size characteristics. Applying a parametric wind field and a linear boundary layer model to the synthetic tropical cyclone tracks allows users to generate synthetic wind swaths, and in turn fit extreme value distributions to evaluate return period wind speeds spatially. The model has been applied to evaluate severe wind hazard across Australia and neighbouring regions. In conjunction with statistical models of synoptic (mid-latitude storms) and thunderstorm wind hazard, we have been able to generate a national assessment of severe wind hazard, which is comparable to existing wind loading design standards. Using tropical cyclone-like vortex tracks directly detected from regional climate models, it is also possible to project cyclonic wind hazard into future climate conditions, accounting for both changes in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones.
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document
eCat Id
71398
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Cnr Jerrabomberra Ave and Hindmarsh Dr GPO Box 378
Canberra
ACT
2601
Australia
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- External PublicationAbstract
- ( Theme )
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- climate
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- numerical modelling
- ( Theme )
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- risk assessment
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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- Published_Internal
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2011-01-01T00:00:00
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